Episode 43

Date: October 27, 2025

Episode 43 Summary:

• Bud notes
• "The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must." - Thucydides
• Mike's recalling the city of Melos made me reminisce about the Delian League. Athens destroyed Melos's populace because the city wished to be neutral and not subject itself to the League, originally a military alliance organized in the defense of the Greeks in light of the very large Persian Empire next door. Later, the League became or contributed to (I'm not clear on which) the Athenian Empire.
• The claim that this is largely a peaceful world and that people's lives are improving via technology was popular in 2014. In this episode I referenced Kurzgesagt's exploration of this topic. Here is their latest video on the subject. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reSfF60-2S4
• Undeployed Essay: give Pluto to Russia
• AI Summary
• In Episode 43 of their podcast, Bud and Mike dissect the recent diplomatic tensions surrounding President Zelensky of Ukraine's visit to the United States, highlighting geopolitical complexities in Eastern Europe and beyond. The conversation opens with Bud noting Zelensky's return to the U.S. in a suit, signaling perhaps a significant diplomatic engagement, only to reveal tensions with former President Trump and subsequent delays in missile deliveries. Mike suggests a nuanced web of diplomacy, marked by Trump's inconsistent foreign policy toward Russia and Ukraine, swinging between aggressive support for Ukraine and hesitations that reflect deeper strategic calculations.
• Their discussion delves into the bigger geopolitical chessboard, stressing the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia as emblematic of power dynamics that deter straightforward resolutions. Mike elucidates that while Ukraine resists Russian encroachments, the war's asymmetry (€”given Russia's superior resources) €”necessitates international support, particularly from NATO and European countries. The deliberate containment strategy by global powers aims to prevent the conflict's escalation beyond Ukraine's borders while avoiding catastrophic outcomes like nuclear confrontation.
• Mike draws historical parallels, referencing geopolitical theories from the tragedy of great power conflicts to ancient conflicts like the Melian Dialogue, underlining how large powers inevitably dominate or negotiate power imbalances with smaller states. He outlines Russia's attempts to regain former Soviet territories as efforts to boost its diminished global stature post-Soviet collapse, contrasting with efforts to maintain international norms established post-World War II to prevent aggressive expansions.
• The conversation shifts to the hidden aspects of global politics, where clandestine activities and economic dependencies underpin public diplomatic exchanges. Mike points out Russia's maneuvers in testing international boundaries, with references to sub-surface military activities and illicit economic engagements across different regions, including South America (€”a move which could pivot global focus and global resources away from Europe.)
• Bud and Mike discuss the delicate interplay between visible market economies and underground economies, the latter seeing countries like Russia circumvent Western sanctions by tapping into alternative resources and black markets. They speculate on Venezuela's oil-rich landscape and Russia's engagement in Latin America as strategic moves to evade sanctions and build influence, reminiscent of historical instances when global powers exerted influence through proxy conflicts and clandestine operations.
• The discussion concludes on a somber note, recognizing the grim realities of the enduring conflict. Mike cautions that unless diplomatic resolutions prioritize global stability and resist territorial concessions to aggressors, future histories might document a world inadvertently allowing resurgent imperialism -- €”a return to a norm that the United Nations and post-war international order sought to abolish. Despite Ukraine's impressive resilience, Mike warns that the standoff remains precarious, necessitating astute diplomatic engagement to avert further conflict escalation or concessions that set dangerous precedents in international relations.

Videos referenced:

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